Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus · Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
EBK vs EPS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for EBK and 2.23 for EPS, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives EPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EPS win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EBK home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EPS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for EBK and 2.23 for EPS, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
EBK
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
EPS
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · EBK 1-5 EPS (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · EBK 2-2 EPS (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EPS win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.