Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus · Analysis updated 12:24 UTC
EBK vs Musa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.72 expected goals for EBK and 1.41 for Musa, a combined total of 4.12. That distribution gives EBK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EBK win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.72 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EBK home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Musa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EBK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.72 goals for EBK and 1.41 for Musa, a combined 4.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–06.0%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
EBK
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
Musa
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · EBK 0-1 Musa (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · EBK 1-1 Musa (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · EBK 4-0 Musa (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-06-12T16:30:00.000Z · EBK 0-2 Musa (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EBK win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.