Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus · Analysis updated 12:21 UTC
EBK vs NJS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for EBK and 0.96 for NJS, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives EBK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EBK win
73.7% probability
Expected goals
2.67 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EBK home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NJS away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EBK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for EBK and 0.96 for NJS, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
EBK
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
NJS
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EBK win, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.