· Analysis updated 22:21 UTC
Ebolitana vs Fidelis Andria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ebolitana and 1.34 for Fidelis Andria, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Fidelis Andria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fidelis Andria away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fidelis Andria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Ebolitana and 1.34 for Fidelis Andria, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Ebolitana
Fidelis Andria
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Manfredonia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brindisi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gravina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pompei · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manfredonia · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.