· Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Ebro vs SD Logroñés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Ebro and 0.79 for SD Logroñés, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Ebro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ebro win
65.9% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ebro home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SD Logroñés away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ebro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Ebro and 0.79 for SD Logroñés, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Ebro
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 0-3 (L)
SD Logroñés
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Olot | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Ebro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Espanyol II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | Manresa | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Girona II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Tudelano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Peña Sport | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Barbastro | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Utebo | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Reddis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | UD Logroñés II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Calamocha | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | SD Logroñés | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 2 |
| 17 | Náxara | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ebro win, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.