Estadio Almozara · Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Ebro vs UD Logroñés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ebro and 1.25 for UD Logroñés, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives UD Logroñés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ebro home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UD Logroñés away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD Logroñés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Ebro and 1.25 for UD Logroñés, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Ebro
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 0-3 (L)
UD Logroñés
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Ebro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Espanyol II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Olot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Manresa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Reddis | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Terrassa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | UD Logroñés II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Girona II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Utebo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Barbastro | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Náxara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 3 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.