· Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
EC Novo Horizonte vs Guarani RS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.30 expected goals for EC Novo Horizonte and 2.30 for Guarani RS, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Guarani RS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guarani RS win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
0.30 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EC Novo Horizonte home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guarani RS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guarani RS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 4% / 14% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.30 goals for EC Novo Horizonte and 2.30 for Guarani RS, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–219.6%
- 0–117.1%
- 0–315.1%
- 0–48.7%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
EC Novo Horizonte
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clube 1992 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panambi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Riograndense RS · 0-3 (L)
Guarani RS
- 2025-12-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Apafut · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-12-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Apafut · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-11-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Rio Grande · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC Novo Horizonte · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · EC Novo Horizonte 0-3 Guarani RS (Gaúcho - 3)
- 2025-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · EC Novo Horizonte 0-7 Guarani RS (Gaúcho - 3)
Gaúcho - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Sport Club | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 20 |
| 2 | Panambi | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Futebol Com Vida | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | São Paulo RS | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cruz A. | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Farroupilha | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | FBC Riograndense RS | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Clube 1992 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 9 | EC Novo Horizonte | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -24 | 4 |
| 10 | SC Rio Grande | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -20 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guarani RS win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.