· Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
EC São Bernardo U20 vs Santo André U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for EC São Bernardo U20 and 0.84 for Santo André U20, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives EC São Bernardo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EC São Bernardo U20 win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EC São Bernardo U20 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santo André U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EC São Bernardo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for EC São Bernardo U20 and 0.84 for Santo André U20, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
EC São Bernardo U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Velo Clube U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Brasil U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aguai U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino U20 · 0-1 (L)
Santo André U20
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertãozinho U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertãozinho U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Velo Clube U20 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aguai U20 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EC São Bernardo U20 win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.