· Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
EC São Bernardo U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for EC São Bernardo U20 and 1.16 for São Paulo U20, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives EC São Bernardo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EC São Bernardo U20 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
São Paulo U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EC São Bernardo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for EC São Bernardo U20 and 1.16 for São Paulo U20, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
EC São Bernardo U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Velo Clube U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Brasil U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aguai U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino U20 · 0-1 (L)
São Paulo U20
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletico PR U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Santo Antonio U20 · 13-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.