Estadio Carfem · Referee C. Thayslane · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Ecuador U17 vs Colombia U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ecuador U17 and 0.79 for Colombia U17, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Ecuador U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ecuador U17 win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colombia U17 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ecuador U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Ecuador U17 and 0.79 for Colombia U17, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
Ecuador U17
Colombia U17
- 2026-04-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U17 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-16T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile U17 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL - U17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ecuador U17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Colombia U17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Uruguay U17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Chile U17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Paraguay U17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil U17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| 2 | Argentina U17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bolivia U17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Venezuela U17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Peru U17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ecuador U17 win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.