Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera · Referee S. Escobar · Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Ecuador U20 W vs Uruguay U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Ecuador U20 W and 0.66 for Uruguay U20 W, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Ecuador U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ecuador U20 W win
70.8% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ecuador U20 W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Uruguay U20 W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ecuador U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Ecuador U20 W and 0.66 for Uruguay U20 W, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.9%
- 1–013.2%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Ecuador U20 W
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea Republic U20 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs France U20 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghana U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-02-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay U20 W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-02-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil U20 W · 1-1 (D)
Uruguay U20 W
- 2026-09-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile U20 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile U20 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-02-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-02-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile U20 W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-02-06T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay U20 W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL U20 Femenino table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil U20 W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Ecuador U20 W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Colombia U20 W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Venezuela U20 W | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 6 | Paraguay U20 W | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 7 | Uruguay U20 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Peru U20 W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 |
| 9 | Chile U20 W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Bolivia U20 W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ecuador U20 W win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.