· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Ecuador W vs Uruguay W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ecuador W and 1.07 for Uruguay W, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Ecuador W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ecuador W home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uruguay W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ecuador W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Ecuador W and 1.07 for Uruguay W, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Ecuador W
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay W · 1-1 (D)
Uruguay W
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolivia W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Peru W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.