Estadio Las Gaunas · Referee A. Gallastegui · Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Edf Logrono W vs Barcelona W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for Edf Logrono W and 3.91 for Barcelona W, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Barcelona W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona W win
90.8% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 3.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Edf Logrono W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
9%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
97%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.0%
- 0–49.8%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–57.7%
- 1–36.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 5.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 3.30 (model 47.9% vs market 27.5%, edge +20.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 3.30 | 27.5% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +20.4 |
| Match result | Home | 67.00 | 1.4% | 2.9% | 34.48 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 15.00 | 6.3% | 6.3% | 15.87 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.03 | 92.2% | 90.8% | 1.10 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.25 | 72.5% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -20.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Edf Logrono W
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Granad. Tenerife W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club W · 0-1 (L)
Barcelona W
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Granada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid W · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Edf Logrono W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-2 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2026-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-3 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2025-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-4 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2021-02-06T11:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-2 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2020-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-6 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2020-02-22T11:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-6 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2019-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-5 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2019-03-31T15:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-4 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2018-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · Edf Logrono W 0-2 Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona W win, at 90.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.