· Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Edinburgh City and 1.33 for Kelty Hearts, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Edinburgh City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Edinburgh City win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Edinburgh City home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kelty Hearts away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Edinburgh City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Edinburgh City and 1.33 for Kelty Hearts, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Edinburgh City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Formartine United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kelty Hearts · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stirling Albion · 7-3 (W)
Kelty Hearts
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Edinburgh City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stirling Albion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Edinburgh City win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.