Meadowbank Sports Centre · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Edinburgh City and 1.50 for Kelty Hearts, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Edinburgh City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Edinburgh City win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Edinburgh City home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kelty Hearts away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Edinburgh City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Edinburgh City and 1.50 for Kelty Hearts, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Edinburgh City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Formartine United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kelty Hearts · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stirling Albion · 7-3 (W)
Kelty Hearts
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Edinburgh City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stirling Albion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Edinburgh City win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.