· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Eemdijk vs Harkemase Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Eemdijk and 2.63 for Harkemase Boys, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives Harkemase Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Harkemase Boys win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eemdijk home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Harkemase Boys away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harkemase Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 21% / 18% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Eemdijk and 2.63 for Harkemase Boys, a combined 4.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–37.3%
- 1–16.3%
- 2–26.3%
- 0–25.5%
Recent form
Eemdijk
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Roosendaal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Nijkerk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Harkemase Boys · 1-2 (L)
Harkemase Boys
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Purmersteijn · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs VV Scherpenzeel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs SVZW · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACV | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Harkemase Boys | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Dongen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Zwaluwen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Poortugaal | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | GOES | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Staphorst | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | TOGB | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Eemdijk | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Harkemase Boys win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.