Sportpark De Vinken · Analysis updated 11:44 UTC
Eemdijk vs Roosendaal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Eemdijk and 1.91 for Roosendaal, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Eemdijk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eemdijk win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eemdijk home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Roosendaal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eemdijk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Eemdijk and 1.91 for Roosendaal, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Eemdijk
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Roosendaal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Nijkerk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Harkemase Boys · 1-2 (L)
Roosendaal
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zwaluwen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:15:00.000Z · A vs TOGB · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vvsb · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eemdijk win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.