Egabrense vs Bollullos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Egabrense and 1.50 for Bollullos, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Egabrense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Egabrense win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bollullos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Egabrense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Egabrense and 1.50 for Bollullos, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Egabrense win49%

Draw22%

Bollullos win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.1%
2–19.1%
1–26.8%
2–26.8%
3–16.0%

Recent form

Egabrense

2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceuta II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 4-2 (W)

Bollullos

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Egabrense · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Betis C · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Egabrense win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.