Egabrense vs Portuense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Egabrense and 1.88 for Portuense, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Portuense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Portuense win

46.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Portuense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Egabrense and 1.88 for Portuense, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 46% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Egabrense win31%

Draw22%

Portuense win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.6%
1–29.0%
2–17.2%
2–26.8%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Egabrense

2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceuta II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 4-2 (W)

Portuense

2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Xerez · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Portuense win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.