Demrozi Stadium · Analysis updated 08:16 UTC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.75 for Skenderbeu Korce, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Egnatia Rrogozhinë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skenderbeu Korce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
Skenderbeu Korce
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tirana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2-1 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2025-04-19T13:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2025-02-22T16:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-1 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2024-12-08T12:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2024-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2024-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-2 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2024-01-13T12:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2023-10-28T15:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2023-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-1 Skenderbeu Korce (Superliga)
- 2023-02-02T12:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 Skenderbeu Korce (Cup)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Egnatia Rrogozhinë win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.