Demrozi Stadium · Analysis updated 12:39 UTC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Teuta Durrës Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1.30 for Teuta Durrës, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Teuta Durrës the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teuta Durrës away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2-3 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2026-03-09T18:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4-2 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2026-03-04T18:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 Teuta Durrës (Cup)
- 2026-02-10T15:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2-1 Teuta Durrës (Cup)
- 2025-12-23T17:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-10-28T16:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-04-27T13:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-2 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-03-02T16:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2024-12-15T15:30:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-2 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2024-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.