Demrozi Stadium · Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vllaznia Shkodër Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.80 for Vllaznia Shkodër, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Egnatia Rrogozhinë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Egnatia Rrogozhinë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.80 for Vllaznia Shkodër, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 1-2 (L)
Vllaznia Shkodër
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Egnatia Rrogozhinë win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.