EGS Gafsa vs Jendouba Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for EGS Gafsa and 1.35 for Jendouba Sport, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Jendouba Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

EGS Gafsa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jendouba Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for EGS Gafsa and 1.35 for Jendouba Sport, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

EGS Gafsa win34%

Draw27%

Jendouba Sport win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–110.3%
1–09.3%
1–28.5%
2–17.7%

Recent form

EGS Gafsa

2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kasserine · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EO Sidi Bouzid · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ariana · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jendouba Sport · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ksour Essef · 2-4 (L)

Jendouba Sport

Head-to-head

2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · EGS Gafsa 1-0 Jendouba Sport (Ligue 2)
2025-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · EGS Gafsa 0-4 Jendouba Sport (Ligue 2)

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redeyef	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Mégrine	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	M'saken	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	1	0	1	2	3
12	Korba	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2	0	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Ariana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Moknine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	0	0	2	-2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.