EGS Gafsa vs Redeyef Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for EGS Gafsa and 2.07 for Redeyef, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Redeyef the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Redeyef win

69.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.69 – 2.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

EGS Gafsa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Redeyef to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 11% / 19% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.69 goals for EGS Gafsa and 2.07 for Redeyef, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 43%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

EGS Gafsa win11%

Draw19%

Redeyef win70%

Double chance 1X

30%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–213.6%
0–113.2%
0–39.4%
1–29.3%
1–19.0%

Recent form

EGS Gafsa

2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kasserine · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EO Sidi Bouzid · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ariana · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jendouba Sport · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ksour Essef · 2-4 (L)

Redeyef

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redeyef	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Mégrine	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	M'saken	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	1	0	1	2	3
12	Korba	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2	0	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Ariana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Moknine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	0	0	2	-2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Redeyef win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.