Suez Canal Stadium · Analysis updated 06:38 UTC
Egypt U20 vs Morocco U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Egypt U20 and 1.13 for Morocco U20, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Egypt U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Egypt U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Morocco U20 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Egypt U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Egypt U20 and 1.13 for Morocco U20, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Home/Away at 1.33 (model 72.0% vs market 68.4%, edge +3.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/AwayValue | 1.33 | 68.4% | 72.0% | 1.39 | +3.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.1% | 33.8% | 2.96 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.7% | 38.2% | 2.62 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 63.2% | 61.8% | 1.62 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 68.4% | 66.2% | 1.51 | -2.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 31.2% | 28.0% | 3.57 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Egypt U20
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Morocco U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Libya U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jordan U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jordan U20 · 2-0 (W)
Morocco U20
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Libya U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Algeria U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U18 · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt U20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Morocco U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Cameroon U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Guinea U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Gambia U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Algeria U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Libya U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Senegal U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Tunisia U20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Congo U20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Côte d'Ivoire U20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Congo DR U20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Gabon U20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Liberia U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Central African Rep. U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Niger U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Nigeria U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Chad U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Mauritania U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Mali U20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.