Eibar II vs Compostela Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Eibar II and 0.70 for Compostela, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Eibar II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

76.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eibar II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Compostela away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eibar II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 32% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Eibar II and 0.70 for Compostela, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Eibar II win44%

Draw32%

Compostela win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–018.2%
0–016.9%
1–112.8%
0–111.9%
2–09.8%

Recent form

Eibar II

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)

Compostela

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · Eibar II 1-0 Compostela (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.