Estadio Municipal de Ipurua · Analysis updated 02:54 UTC
Eibar III vs Derio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Eibar III and 1.20 for Derio, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Eibar III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eibar III home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eibar III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Eibar III and 1.20 for Derio, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Eibar III
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad III · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Leioa · 1-2 (L)
Derio
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagun Onak · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Beasain · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Derio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | San Ignacio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Touring | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Durango | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Eibar III | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Beasain | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sodupe | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Erandio | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.