Eibar vs Valladolid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Eibar and 1.20 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Eibar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Eibar win

55.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eibar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valladolid away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Eibar win56%

Draw22%

Valladolid win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.8%
1–08.2%
2–08.1%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Eibar

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eldense · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta de Vigo II · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 3-0 (W)

Valladolid

2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Eibar 1-0 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2026-04-13T18:30:00.000Z · Eibar 0-0 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2025-12-19T19:30:00.000Z · Eibar 3-0 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2024-03-24T15:15:00.000Z · Eibar 1-3 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2023-10-27T19:00:00.000Z · Eibar 5-1 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2022-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · Eibar 0-2 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2021-10-31T17:15:00.000Z · Eibar 0-2 Valladolid (Segunda División)
2021-02-13T17:30:00.000Z · Eibar 1-1 Valladolid (La Liga)
2020-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · Eibar 2-1 Valladolid (La Liga)
2020-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · Eibar 3-1 Valladolid (La Liga)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	11	8	1	2	13	25
2	Castellón	10	7	2	1	14	23
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	2	16
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Eldense	10	4	2	4	0	14
13	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-5	14
14	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	-2	13
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	-9	12
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	-8	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	-13	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Eibar win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.