Eiche Horn vs Geestemünde Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Eiche Horn and 1.78 for Geestemünde, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Eiche Horn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eiche Horn home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Geestemünde away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eiche Horn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Eiche Horn and 1.78 for Geestemünde, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Eiche Horn win44%

Draw21%

Geestemünde win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.1%
2–18.1%
1–27.2%
2–27.2%
3–15.4%

Recent form

Eiche Horn

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs OSC Bremerhaven · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aumund-Vegesack · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemelingen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Woltmershausen · 3-2 (W)

Geestemünde

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Leher TS · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · Eiche Horn 2-3 Geestemünde (Oberliga - Bremen)
2026-04-15T17:45:00.000Z · Eiche Horn 1-4 Geestemünde (Oberliga - Bremen)
2025-05-16T17:15:00.000Z · Eiche Horn 2-3 Geestemünde (Oberliga - Bremen)
2024-12-01T10:00:00.000Z · Eiche Horn 4-3 Geestemünde (Oberliga - Bremen)

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	11	10	1	0	38	31
2	Brinkumer SV	11	10	0	1	29	30
3	Blumenthaler SV	11	9	0	2	28	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	11	8	1	2	31	25
5	Aumund-Vegesack	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Geestemünde	11	5	2	4	0	17
7	Vatan Sport	11	5	1	5	-3	16
8	Leher TS	11	4	2	5	7	14
9	Schwachhausen	11	4	2	5	-8	14
10	Union Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
11	BTS Neustadt	11	4	0	7	-12	12
12	Eiche Horn	11	3	3	5	-12	12
13	Grohn	11	3	1	7	-23	10
14	Werder Bremen III	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Oberneuland	11	1	2	8	-31	5
16	Woltmershausen	11	1	1	9	-30	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.