Eidsvold vs Hønefoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Eidsvold and 1.25 for Hønefoss, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Eidsvold the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Eidsvold win

61.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.34 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eidsvold home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hønefoss away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eidsvold to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Eidsvold and 1.25 for Hønefoss, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Eidsvold win62%

Draw19%

Hønefoss win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.1%
2–07.6%
3–17.4%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Eidsvold

2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Trygg/Lade · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Follo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ull/Kisa · 3-1 (W)

Hønefoss

2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Division - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eidsvold	25	19	3	3	39	60
2	Kjelsås	24	17	2	5	22	53
3	Levanger	24	16	1	7	28	49
4	Hønefoss	25	15	4	6	21	49
5	Grorud	24	14	4	6	20	46
6	Lørenskog	25	11	4	10	-1	37
7	Stjørdals-Blink	24	11	3	10	1	36
8	Tromsdalen Uil	24	11	2	11	1	35
9	Junkeren	24	9	4	11	-8	31
10	Rana	24	9	3	12	-5	30
11	Skeid	25	7	2	16	-17	23
12	Follo	25	5	5	15	-19	20
13	Ull/Kisa	25	4	1	20	-52	13
14	Trygg/Lade	24	2	4	18	-30	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Eidsvold win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.