Ekenas Sparbank Arena TN · Referee A. Sugulle · Analysis updated 08:43 UTC
EIF vs JIPPO Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for EIF and 1.27 for JIPPO, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives JIPPO the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
JIPPO win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EIF home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
JIPPO away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates JIPPO to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for EIF and 1.27 for JIPPO, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 57.9% vs market 45.5%, edge +12.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.5% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +12.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.8% | 3.47 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.70 | 54.5% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 45.4% | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.2% | 1.35 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.3% | 71.2% | 1.40 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 26.0% | 25.8% | 3.88 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -12.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
EIF
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 0-2 (L)
JIPPO
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is JIPPO win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.