Ekenas Sparbank Arena TN · Referee J. Kontinen · Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
EIF vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for EIF and 1.35 for KäPa, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives EIF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EIF home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KäPa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
EIF
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 0-2 (L)
KäPa
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · EIF 1-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · EIF 1-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-02-06T12:00:00.000Z · EIF 1-1 KäPa (Ykköscup)
- 2025-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · EIF 4-1 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-06-14T13:00:00.000Z · EIF 3-1 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-04-23T15:30:00.000Z · EIF 4-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · EIF 2-2 KäPa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · EIF 2-1 KäPa (Ykkönen)
- 2023-06-04T15:00:00.000Z · EIF 3-2 KäPa (Ykkönen)
- 2023-02-04T13:00:00.000Z · EIF 3-1 KäPa (Ykköscup)
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.