Deutsche Bank Park · Analysis updated 20:33 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.15 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Eintracht Frankfurt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Eintracht Frankfurt win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Köln away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 45.6% vs market 33.3%, edge +12.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 33.3% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +12.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.6% | 24.9% | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 47.4% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.4% | 72.4% | 1.38 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 28.0% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.7% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -12.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
1. FC Köln
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T15:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-22T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-3 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-03T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-03T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-12T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-3 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-21T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-19T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2021-02-14T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2020-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eintracht Frankfurt win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.