Deutsche Bank Park · Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.50 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayern München win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern München away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayern München to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 17% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.50 for Bayern München, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
Bayern München
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.