Deutsche Bank Park · Referee Daniel Schlager, Germany · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.77 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.68. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Augsburg win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 2.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–14.9%
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-13T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-20T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-07T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-19T18:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-03T18:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-29T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2022-11-05T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2022-01-16T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Augsburg win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.