Deutsche Bank Park · Analysis updated 07:08 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.08 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives FC Schalke 04 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Schalke 04 win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Schalke 04 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
FC Schalke 04
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-05-20T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-21T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2021-05-15T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2021-01-17T17:00:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2020-06-17T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-15T17:00:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2019-04-06T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2018-11-11T17:00:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2018-05-12T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
- 2018-04-18T18:45:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FC Schalke 04 (DFB Pokal)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Schalke 04 win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.