Deutsche Bank Park · Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.69 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives RB Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
RB Leipzig win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 2.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
RB Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.4%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
RB Leipzig
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-06T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-6 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-26T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-15T18:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-04T19:45:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-3 RB Leipzig (DFB Pokal)
- 2024-05-18T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-13T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2023-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 RB Leipzig (DFB Pokal)
- 2023-02-25T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-07T13:00:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-2 RB Leipzig (Friendlies Clubs)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.