Deutsche Bank Park · Referee Sören Storks, Germany · Analysis updated 14:00 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.32 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Eintracht Frankfurt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freiburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–28.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.88 (model 44.3% vs market 32.7%, edge +11.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.88 | 32.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +11.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.8% | 60.2% | 1.66 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.7% | 39.8% | 2.51 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.5% | 3.92 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.2% | 65.3% | 1.53 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.9% | 34.7% | 2.88 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 67.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -11.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
SC Freiburg
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-01T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-19T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-17T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-18T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-06T12:00:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-5 SC Freiburg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-09-24T15:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-27T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-25T19:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
- 2022-04-10T15:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 SC Freiburg (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.