Deutsche Bank Park · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.00 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Eintracht Frankfurt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Eintracht Frankfurt win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eintracht Frankfurt home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Stuttgart away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–15.9%
- 1–25.9%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2026-01-13T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 2-3 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-29T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2024-11-10T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 0-3 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-25T17:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-03T18:45:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 VfB Stuttgart (DFB Pokal)
- 2023-03-11T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2022-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-05T14:30:00.000Z · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eintracht Frankfurt win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.