Zakaria Medjdoub Stadium · Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
El Bayadh vs JS Kabylie Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for El Bayadh and 1.18 for JS Kabylie, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives JS Kabylie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JS Kabylie away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates JS Kabylie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 27% / 30% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for El Bayadh and 1.18 for JS Kabylie, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
El Bayadh
JS Kabylie
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Témouchent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs MB Rouisset · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CR Belouizdad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs ASO Chlef · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs ES Setif · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T17:00:00.000Z · El Bayadh 1-1 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-03T16:45:00.000Z · El Bayadh 1-4 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2025-05-12T16:00:00.000Z · El Bayadh 1-2 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-17T16:30:00.000Z · El Bayadh 0-3 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2024-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · El Bayadh 1-1 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2024-01-23T16:00:00.000Z · El Bayadh 0-0 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2023-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · El Bayadh 1-3 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
- 2022-09-24T15:30:00.000Z · El Bayadh 0-0 JS Kabylie (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MC Oran | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | JS Kabylie | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | USM Alger | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Olympique Akbou | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Témouchent | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | CS Constantine | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Setif | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | US Biskra | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.