Khaled Bichara Stadium · Referee A. El Ghandour · Analysis updated 20:02 UTC
El Gouna FC vs El Mokawloon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for El Gouna FC and 1.00 for El Mokawloon, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives El Gouna FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
El Gouna FC win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Gouna FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
El Mokawloon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Gouna FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for El Gouna FC and 1.00 for El Mokawloon, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
El Gouna FC
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrojet · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs El Mokawloon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic El Qanah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Future FC · 1-1 (D)
El Mokawloon
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Enppi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Masr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs El Gouna FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wadi Degla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahly · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is El Gouna FC win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.