Khaled Bichara Stadium · Referee M. Maarouf · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
El Gouna FC vs Petrojet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for El Gouna FC and 0.99 for Petrojet, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Petrojet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Gouna FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petrojet away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 0–116.4%
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–28.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 65.1% vs market 54.7%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 65.1% | 1.54 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 69.8% | 71.3% | 1.40 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 28.7% | 28.7% | 3.48 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.38 | 38.6% | 38.6% | 2.59 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.3% | 67.3% | 1.49 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 32.8% | 32.7% | 3.06 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.8% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 34.9% | 2.87 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
El Gouna FC
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrojet · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs El Mokawloon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic El Qanah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Future FC · 1-1 (D)
Petrojet
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wadi Degla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Gouna FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AL Masry · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs El Geish · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 1-2 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2026-05-28T14:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 2-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2026-01-06T15:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 1-3 Petrojet (League Cup)
- 2025-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 1-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 0-1 Petrojet (League Cup)
- 2024-12-26T18:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 0-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2019-02-28T14:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 2-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2018-09-22T13:30:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 2-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2015-06-16T14:30:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 2-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
- 2014-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · El Gouna FC 1-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.