Leonardo Costa · Analysis updated 17:46 UTC
El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for El Linqueño and 0.93 for Independiente De Chivilcoy, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives El Linqueño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Linqueño home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente De Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Linqueño to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 30% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for El Linqueño and 0.93 for Independiente De Chivilcoy, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.8%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
El Linqueño
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 2-0 (W)
Independiente De Chivilcoy
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.