· Analysis updated 07:45 UTC
El Mansura vs AL Nasr SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for El Mansura and 1.02 for AL Nasr SC, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives AL Nasr SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AL Nasr SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AL Nasr SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 34% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for El Mansura and 1.02 for AL Nasr SC, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
El Mansura
AL Nasr SC
- 2026-10-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs El Mansura · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Proxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs La Viena FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Seka El Hadid · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanta SC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Haras El Hodood | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Pharco | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Itesalat | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | El Mansura | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | AL Nasr SC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Tersana | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | El Seka El Hadid | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | El Entag EL Harby | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Ismaily SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | El Dakhleya | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Tanta SC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Team | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Dayrout | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Proxy | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | La Viena FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 20 | Mega Sport | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.