El Mokawloon vs Masr Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for El Mokawloon and 1.20 for Masr, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Masr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

73.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.85 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

El Mokawloon home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Masr away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Masr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 26% / 30% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for El Mokawloon and 1.20 for Masr, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

El Mokawloon win26%

Draw30%

Masr win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–115.4%
1–113.1%
0–012.9%
1–010.9%
0–29.3%

Recent form

El Mokawloon

2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wadi Degla · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahly · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Gouna FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AL Masry · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Geish · 0-1 (L)

Masr

2026-10-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic El Qanah · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs ASAS · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Enppi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ASAS · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pyramids FC	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Future FC	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	4	1	1	4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	4	0	2	4	12
7	National Bank of Egypt	6	3	0	3	0	9
8	El Mokawloon	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Petrojet	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Masr	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Olympic El Qanah	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	El Geish	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Enppi	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	El Gouna FC	6	0	2	4	-4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.