· Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for El Nacional and 0.78 for LDU Portoviejo, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives El Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Nacional home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
LDU Portoviejo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.7%
- 1–016.6%
- 0–116.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
El Nacional
- 2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Ind. Juniors · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Octubre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T20:30:00.000Z · A vs 22 de Julio · 3-1 (W)
LDU Portoviejo
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Santo Domingo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs El Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs 22 de Julio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 0-2 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 0-1 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2026-03-28T21:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 1-2 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2021-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 1-1 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2021-07-14T20:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 0-2 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2021-06-03T00:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 1-2 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2021-03-31T00:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 0-3 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2020-10-15T21:30:00.000Z · El Nacional 0-3 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro)
- 2020-02-16T18:00:00.000Z · El Nacional 2-1 LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro)
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.