Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar · Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
El Palmar vs Atlético Pulpileño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for El Palmar and 1.35 for Atlético Pulpileño, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Atlético Pulpileño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Pulpileño win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Palmar home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Pulpileño away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–09.2%
Recent form
El Palmar
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pulpileño · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UCAM Murcia II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazarrón FC · 1-4 (L)
Atlético Pulpileño
- 2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bala Azul · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Santomera · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cotillas CD · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Bullas Deportivo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-0 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2026-01-04T11:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-1 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-1 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2024-12-01T11:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-1 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2024-03-02T16:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-1 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2023-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-0 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2023-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 2-1 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2022-12-18T11:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 2-3 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2021-01-17T11:00:00.000Z · El Palmar 0-0 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2020-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · El Palmar 1-1 Atlético Pulpileño (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | San Javier | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | UCAM Murcia II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Unión Molinense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Águilas II | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Alcantarilla | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Atlético Pulpileño | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Bala Azul | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Olímpico Totana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Cartagena LU II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Los Garres | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Balsicas Atlético | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Algar | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | Bullas Deportivo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Pulpileño win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.