El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for El Palmar and 1.76 for UCAM Murcia II, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives UCAM Murcia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

UCAM Murcia II win

48.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

El Palmar home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UCAM Murcia II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCAM Murcia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for El Palmar and 1.76 for UCAM Murcia II, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

El Palmar win28%

Draw23%

UCAM Murcia II win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.8%
1–29.4%
0–18.3%
0–27.3%
2–17.0%

Recent form

El Palmar

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pulpileño · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UCAM Murcia II · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazarrón FC · 1-4 (L)

UCAM Murcia II

2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balsicas Atlético · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Santomera · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muleño · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	San Javier	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	2	3	1	1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	2	3	1	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	2	2	2	6	8
7	Águilas II	6	1	5	0	2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Algar	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is UCAM Murcia II win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.