El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.18 for Monterey Bay, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives El Paso Locomotive the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

El Paso Locomotive or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

El Paso Locomotive win44%

Draw26%

Monterey Bay win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

El Paso Locomotive home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monterey Bay away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

El Paso Locomotive

2026-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Oakland Roots · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterey Bay · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Orange County SC · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting JAX · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-19T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Tulsa · 0-1 (L)

Monterey Bay

2026-08-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs New Mexico United · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Lexington · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Phoenix Rising · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 1-0 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2026-06-21T02:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2026-03-15T02:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 3-0 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2025-08-17T01:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 2-2 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2025-06-22T02:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2024-08-25T02:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 0-0 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2024-03-14T01:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 1-1 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2023-09-03T01:30:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 1-2 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2023-07-09T02:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 0-0 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)
2022-08-07T02:00:00.000Z · El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Monterey Bay (USL Championship)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.