Estadio Jorge Gonzalez · Referee P. Lauziere · Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
El Salvador vs Martinique Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for El Salvador and 0.87 for Martinique, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives El Salvador the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
El Salvador win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Martinique away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Salvador to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for El Salvador and 0.87 for Martinique, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.73 | 53.6% | 55.1% | 1.81 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.3% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.4% | 22.1% | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 78.3% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.4% | 51.5% | 1.94 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 73.9% | 73.6% | 1.36 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.33 | 21.7% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.8% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.4% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
El Salvador
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Guatemala · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Martinique · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
Martinique
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Suriname · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs El Salvador · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs El Salvador · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-02-21T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Barbados | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 |
| 7 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | St. Lucia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Aruba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | French Guyana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | US Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Guatemala | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Jamaica | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 19 | Suriname | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Honduras | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Martinique | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | Guadeloupe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | El Salvador | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 26 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Belize | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Grenada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 31 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 33 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 37 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is El Salvador win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.